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Umno mulls odds in early polls scenario

Snap election could be held next year: Academics

PETALING JAYA: Once the undisputed backbone of Malaysian politics, Umno is now wrestling with a question that ties into its survival: Would an early general election help the party recover or push it deeper into decline? Talk of an early GE16 has intensified, but for Umno leaders the debate is less about Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s strategy and more about whether their party could claw its way back from what some call its lowest point in history. Umno supreme council member Datuk Lokman Noor Adam said a snap poll in 2026 is possible but unresolved controversies could weigh on the Madani government and BN. “In my view, it is not impossible for the general election to be held next year, if the economy improves and ongoing issues subside. But at this stage, looking at the Zara Qairina Mahathir case and the Kampung Sungai Baru redevelopment controversy, it is unlikely the PM would do so if the opposition continues to harp on these issues,” he told theSun . He said these flashpoints cannot be underestimated as they could erode public trust if left unaddressed. He also dismissed speculation that Anwar may call an election to secure another term before turning 80. “I heard that the election may be called so the PM could lead for one more term. But we cannot assume that holding polls early would automatically benefit the government.” Lokman added that PH-BN’s chances rest on whether the grassroots would deliver genuine cross-party support. “The chances for PH-BN to win are very bright if real cross-voting happens, meaning PH supporters sincerely vote for BN candidates, and vice versa. But now, both sides have factions still focused on differences rather than common ground. That is the real obstacle. “Just because it is early does not mean it would benefit PH-BN. We cannot rush into this or become overly confident.” Former Cabinet minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Aziz took a pragmatic view, suggesting that if Anwar opts for an early election, it would be driven by cost-saving rather than political manoeuvring. “I know Anwar as someone who strongly upholds democratic principles and I believe he would stick to the full five-year term unless there are compelling reasons. The Constitution allows for early dissolution, but I do not see him doing it just to gain advantage. If anything, it would be about efficiency, holding the federal election alongside several state polls to save funds.” The former supreme councillor expressed optimism that Umno could rebuild its strength. “If Umno could avoid three-way contests with PH, then I believe we have a (good) chance of increasing our number of seats. That is why we want to continue working with PH.” He also rejected speculation of a comeback for leaders such as Khairy Jamaluddin or Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein, adding that the party should move forward. “We do not want to repeat old episodes. There is no need to bring them back because it may create conditions or terms for re-entry, which would only complicate things further. We support and stand with the current president.” Still, Nazri conceded Umno is a shadow of its former self. “Yes, Umno has hit rock bottom. But the only way from here is up. If Umno could move away from irrelevant issues and focus on the core struggles of the party, then I believe it could rise again.” Umno, which once dominated Parliament, secured just 26 seats and 31% of the popular vote in GE15, its worst-ever performance. – By Ikhwan Zulkaflee

o Improving economy, opposition political fractures

before they resolve their issues.” She also said the Unity government could use this window to consolidate power, especially if Barisan Nasional (BN) reclaims parts of its traditional Malay base. “PAS continues to make inroads in Malay majority seats. Pakatan Harapan (PH) still commands support in urban and mixed constituencies, so together with their East Malaysian partners, I believe, they could retain power for now.” However, she cautioned against complacency. “The main advantage lies in the economy and the cracks in Bersatu, but it is still risky. The Malays are not fully on board with PH-BN yet. Still, this combination offers an advantage over a PN that draws support primarily from Malay voters.” On seat distribution, she said PH would likely retain its 80 seats, with BN’s showing in Malay heartlands determining whether the coalition could stretch its majority. “PN only has momentum in areas it is already strong. An early GE16 would not create a landslide for either side, but it would preserve the current balance. And for PMX (Anwar), that is good enough to continue leading with close to a two-thirds majority when combined with Sabah and Sarawak support,” she said, referring to Anwar’s coalition before the exit of the Malaysia United Democratic Alliance. Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Dr Oh Ei Sun said going to the polls in the government’s fourth year is “not out of the ordinary” and could serve as a strategic reset. “There has been constant political

manoeuvring, from defections within ruling coalition parties to the opposition hinting at a change in government. Anwar may feel it necessary to get a fresh mandate to continue his reform agenda,” he said, adding that the outcome would be unpredictable. “It is anybody’s guess who would form the next government. No single party or coalition is likely to win an outright majority. The key question would be the composition of the next ruling coalition.” He said PN retains momentum after strong showings in GE15 and the 2023 state elections, but Sabah and Sarawak parties remain decisive. “Still, Sabah and Sarawak parties would continue to play the role of kingmakers, making post-election alliances critical.” Asia Group Advisors associate director Kamles Kumar said from a strategy lens, early polls may be both a gamble and a necessity. “In recent weeks, Anwar’s grip on power has looked increasingly fragile, with mounting criticism over unfulfilled reform promises, judicial appointment controversies and dissatisfaction over the cost of living. “The unity coalition appears shaky, while the opposition, particularly PAS, is sensing opportunity and openly positioning for major gains in GE16.” Kamles added that while measures such as offering more parliamentary seats to Sabah and Sarawak were meant to strengthen federal support, they also underscored the government’s delicate majority. “If elections are called next year, it may be a defensive gamble by Anwar to pre-empt further erosion. But the growing discontent also gives the Opposition a real chance to capitalise.”

may encourage early Parliament dissolution

Ű BY IKHWAN ZULKAFLEE newsdesk@thesundaily.com

PETALING political manoeuvres and shifting economic currents are fuelling speculation that Malaysians could head to the polls as early as 2026, two years before the current mandate expires. Analysts say such a move would be a gamble for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, but one that could help him lock in a fragile advantage. International Islamic University Malaysia associate professor Dr Syaza Shukri said two factors could push Anwar towards early Parliament dissolution – improving economic signals and fractures within the opposition. “The economy is doing relatively well. Yes, the cost of living is still a concern, but government assistance, the reduction in RON95 price and wage increases suggest the government wants to build on this momentum,” said Syaza, who is also a fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute. She added that Perikatan Nasional (PN) remains unsettled, with tensions between Bersatu and PAS creating uncertainty. “PN appears to be at odds between Bersatu and PAS, so this is a good time to pre-empt JAYA: Mounting

Oh said going to the polls in the government’s fourth year is ‘not out of the ordinary’ and could serve as a strategic reset. – AMIRUL SYAFIQ/THESUN

BN open to running with any party, except GRS PUTRAJAYA: BN reiterated its stance of being ready to work with any party ahead of the 17th Sabah election, except Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS). political partners such as PH and other like-minded parties. “BN-PH ‘plus’, ‘plus’ ,‘plus’ means we are ready to work with any party that agrees with our party’s principles.

The Sabah State Legislative Assembly would be automatically dissolved on Nov 11 to make way for the 17th state election. Ahmad Zahid, who is also Umno president, was previously reported to have said BN would not field candidates in all 73 state assembly seats, but would instead identify the number of seats suitable to contest. – Bernama

BN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the collaborative approach was in line with the party’s principle of avoiding overlapping seats that could potentially be won, especially through alliances with

“With GRS, we have decided (not to work together) because they are confident they could win a lot, so they do not need BN,“ he said after the Ikondesa launch ceremony on Wednesday.