14/07/2026

TUESDAY | JULY 14, 2026

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Johor polls expose shifting voter loyalties

o Economic concerns, reform fatigue and local issues reshaping support beyond traditional party, ethnic lines: Analyst

seats.” However, Oh cautioned against drawing national conclusions from Johor’s results alone, adding that the state had traditionally been a BN stronghold. “Let us wait until the Negeri Sembilan results before we make any preliminary conclusion regarding BN’s resurgence.” Political analyst Prof James Chin said Umno’s strong campaign helped it retain its dominance in Johor, but cautioned that the outcome might not signal a wider political trend. “Umno has shown that it is capable of defending Johor by winning in a landslide,” he said, describing the result as a “very unique Johor phenomenon” that may not be replicated in other states. “We have to wait for the results in Negeri Sembilan and Malacca. My prediction is that it cannot be replicated elsewhere.” Chin also pointed to DAP’s declining ability to mobilise its traditional Chinese support base, citing low turnout in several DAP held areas. “The results suggest that DAP is no longer able to mobilise the Chinese ground as effectively as before.” ‘Voters urged to MALACCA: Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh has urged the public to assess Barisan Nasional’s (BN) performance based on its record in developing the state throughout its administration. Ab Rauf, who is also Malacca BN chairman, said in doing so, the public should reject the politics of hatred propagated by certain political parties. “I do hope the democratic process in Malacca will be guided by our track record rather than slander, provocation and politics of hatred, which bring no benefit to the harmony of the people. “I strongly believe the public have reached greater political maturity, a stage in which they can see that the performance of the current state government has delivered positive outcomes for the economy, tourism, investment and social harmony,” he told reporters outside the State Legislative Assembly sitting at the Seri Negeri Complex yesterday. Ab Rauf was speaking when asked to comment on BN’s victory in the 16th Johor state election last Saturday, in which the coalition retained its mandate by winning 48 seats in the 56-seat State Legislative Assembly. When asked whether seat negotiations had begun with other political parties ahead of the Malacca state election, which is due to be held this year, he said any announcement would be made “when the time comes”. The current term of the State Legislative Assembly is due to expire at the end of December. – Bernama judge BN by track record’

economic pressure and local issues shaping outcomes beyond ethnicity. Meanwhile, political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said the Johor election did not indicate a significant or widening ethnic divide. “There is no such thing as non Malays all voting for PH while all Malays voted for BN. I think it is more mixed.” He added that unofficial information suggested BN, particularly MCA, had regained some Chinese support, with as much as 30% of Chinese votes potentially returning to the coalition. Oh said PH could no longer assume continued support from Chinese and Indian voters, with some possibly shifting back to BN due to dissatisfaction over the pace of reforms and perceptions that BN’s experience made it better equipped to govern. “Some wanted to punish PH for reneging on its reform promises or because the reforms have been too slow.” He added that BN had also made gains among non-Malay voters. “Barisan certainly made a lot of gains in non-Malay votes. Otherwise, they would not win so many seats and PH would not lose so many

could become increasingly willing to experiment with alternatives if local grievances remained unresolved. She cited economic concerns, wage stagnation, pressure on small and medium enterprises and perceptions that the Unity government had been fragmented in its economic response as among the factors shaping voter behaviour. On Malay voters, she said the Barisan Nasional-PH alliance could potentially slow or reverse Perikatan Nasional’s consolidation of Malay support if it delivered tangible improvements to Malay livelihoods and addressed religious concerns. She added that any gains made by BN or PN among Chinese and Indian voters would carry significant implications ahead of the 16th general election. “If BN gains some Chinese and Indian support, it strengthens the case for the PH-BN Unity government as more than just a tactical alliance. “If PN gains some Chinese and Indian support, it breaks the stereotype of PN as a purely Malay Muslim coalition.” Kartini also said increasing volatility in mixed constituencies suggested Johor could emerge as a key battleground, with urbanisation,

Ű BY KIRTINEE RAMESH newsdesk@thesundaily.com

cross-ethnic legitimacy, identity based politics will deepen. “But if they instead compete on performance in mixed constituencies and Malay-majority seats, the ethnic divide could be politically managed rather than weaponised.” She added that despite the continued influence of identity politics, coalitions would still need to build common ground through power-sharing, bargaining and negotiation. Kartini also said Chinese and Indian voters largely remained Pakatan Harapan’s core support base, particularly in urban Johor, but there were signs of voter fatigue, including lower turnout, frustration over slow reforms and concerns over the rising cost of living. “The risk for PH is not an immediate collapse, but a gradual erosion characterised by lower turnout and more protest votes.” Kartini said non-Malay voters

PETALING JAYA: The Johor state election has signalled shifting political fault lines in Malaysia, with analysts saying ethnic voting patterns remain a factor but traditional support bases can no longer be taken for granted. They said the results showed growing voter fluidity, with economic concerns, reform fatigue and local issues increasingly influencing choices alongside identity politics. Prof Dr Kartini Aboo Talib, Malaysian Studies chairholder at Victoria University of Wellington and political analyst, said the election exposed deeper structural tensions within Malaysia’s party system and highlighted the need for political parties to move beyond identity based strategies. “If the coalitions respond by chasing ethnic purity rather than

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PN wipeout weakens PAS bargaining power Ű BY T.C. KHOR newsdesk@thesundaily.com

supporters to back BN candidates in the 23 constituencies where PN was not contesting, in a bid to prevent Pakatan Harapan from forming the state government. On July 9, PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang said the party was prepared to support BN in forming the Johor government if the coalition fell short of a simple majority. He said any cooperation should be based on mutual trust rather than formal agreements, adding that BN would have the right to appoint the menteri besar and state executive councillors, while PAS could provide support if required. Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said initiatives such as Muafakat Nasional and Rumah Bangsa might appear politically attractive, but leadership remained the biggest obstacle. “The key question remains which party is set to lead such a coalition, and the fight for that helm typically will tear the particular initiative apart,” he said, adding that PN was already grappling with internal power struggles.

“The Johor victory allows Umno to argue that Malay political consolidation should take place under its leadership rather than through PAS or PN.” Tawfik said PN failed to project itself as a cohesive and credible alternative to BN, despite PAS and Bersatu contesting under the same banner. Rather than mounting a coordinated campaign, the two parties largely operated independently, with PAS openly declaring that its election machinery would not assist Bersatu candidates. He added that although BN entered the election as the clear favourite, PN’s complete wipeout was more severe than many had anticipated. Tawfik also said PN secured only 5.4% of the statewide vote, demonstrating that the momentum it enjoyed in several northern and east coast states could not simply be replicated in Johor. In early July, PAS instructed its members and

PETALING JAYA: Perikatan Nasional’s crushing defeat in the Johor state election has severely weakened PAS’s bargaining power with Umno, leaving any prospect of reviving Muafakat Nasional increasingly likely to be dictated on Barisan Nasional’s terms, political analysts said. Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said PAS’s push to revive Muafakat Nasional 2.0 before the Johor election had become considerably more difficult following BN’s commanding 48-seat victory. “Umno has less electoral need to enter an equal partnership with PAS now. Any revival of Muafakat Nasional is therefore likely to occur on Umno’s terms.” He added that the result also strengthened Umno’s push for its Rumah Bangsa initiative, which seeks to reunite former, suspended and estranged Umno members while drawing other Malay political figures into an Umno-led platform.