13/07/2026

MONDAY | JULY 13, 2026

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‘Polls outcome no indicator of how votes will swing in GE16’

Ű BY T.C. KHOR newsdesk@thesundaily.com

PETALING Barisan Nasional’s (BN) resounding victory in the Johor state election should not be taken as an indicator of how Malaysians will vote in the 16th general election (GE16), said political observers. They pointed out that state and general elections are driven by different dynamics. Political analyst Dr Syaza Shukri said the outcome should not be interpreted either as public acceptance or rejection of the BN-Pakatan Harapan (PH) cooperation at the federal level. JAYA:

o State and general elections driven by different dynamics, say political analysts

its state-level performance while remaining ambivalent about the federal arrangement.” Ivanpal added that state election victories should not be treated as a reliable forecast of a general election. “It shows that the political landscape remains fluid. BN has reason to be encouraged, particularly in Johor, but it cannot afford to become complacent. “We have seen this before. Previously, BN performed strongly in the Malacca and Johor state elections, only to suffer a disappointing result during GE15. “A general election involves a much broader electorate, different issues and a national contest over who should govern the country. “BN must therefore treat this result as evidence that recovery is possible, not as proof that recovery has already been achieved.” The Johor state election, held on Saturday, saw BN increase its tally to 48 seats from 40 in 2022, securing a two-thirds majority in the 56-seat assembly. Of these, Umno won 36 seats, up from 33 in 2022, MCA doubled its representation from four to eight seats while MIC increased its tally from three to four seats. Among BN’s notable gains were the former PH-held seats of Jementah, Tangkak, Johor Jaya, Perling and Bukit Batu. and local issues. The result could offer a clearer indication of whether the Johor wave can extend beyond the southern state. Beyond state politics, BN’s victory will inevitably fuel speculation over the wider political landscape, including the timing of the 16th general election. Although the federal Unity government remains intact and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has maintained that it will serve its full term, another strong performance by BN could reshape political calculations within the ruling coalition. Ultimately, Johor showed that voters are becoming less focused on race or religious rhetoric and more concerned with governance, stability and delivery. The message from Johoreans is simple – governments that perform will be rewarded. The challenge now is whether BN can justify its larger mandate, whether PH can regroup and whether newer political players can convince voters that they deserve a place in Malaysia’s evolving political landscape. Johor may have voted first but its political aftershocks are unlikely to stop at the state’s borders.

Syaza said the election outcome in Johor, nevertheless, suggests that PH, despite having been in government for four years, could face a tougher contest during GE16. “PH has been leading the government for four years and, as with any government, has fumbled here and there. As in any democracy, people start looking for alternatives.” Pacific Research Centre principal adviser Oh Ei Sun shared a similar view, saying BN and PH are likely to contest GE16 independently before deciding on any post-election cooperation. “The main component coalitions, namely BN and PH, will go their separate ways in the upcoming GE16. “That does not, of course, preclude them from working again together after the election if either party does not win an outright parliamentary majority.” He pointed out that BN “won stunningly” in Johor and therefore, could govern the state on its own. “But at the federal level, I’m not sure they can repeat the same feat.” Political observer Ivanpal Singh Grewal likewise cautioned against drawing broad national conclusions from the Johor polls result. “Voters are capable of supporting BN in Johor because of coalition will need to reassess its strategy, local messaging and candidate selection. The result also exposed the challenges facing Perikatan Nasional, with internal disagreements and a lack of opposition cohesion appearing to have limited its ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the government. For newcomer Bersama (Parti Bersama Malaysia), the outcome is a setback but not necessarily the end. Although the party failed to win any seat, securing thousands of votes across several constituencies less than two months after its formation suggests that there is some appetite for a new political alternative. Johor, however, may not have been the ideal battleground for a movement still building its identity, particularly outside urban centres. The political spotlight now shifts almost immediately. In less than a week, attention will turn to Negeri Sembilan, where another state election will test whether Johor was a one-off reaffirmation of BN’s traditional strength or the beginning of a broader political trend. While BN enters the contest with renewed confidence, Negeri Sembilan has its own unique political dynamics, demographics

If anything, it shows that voters may support BN more on its own than when working together with PH,” she told theSun .

“I don’t think we can read anything about the Unity government because this election saw each coalition on its own.

PH election machinery director Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari during a media conference at the Pulai Spring Resort in Johor after the state election results were announced. – BERNAMAPIC

Onn Tak Onn ? Johor answers with resounding ‘Yes’

Ű BY HARITH KAMAL newsdesk@thesundaily.com

became shorthand for BN’s central message that Onn Hafiz’s leadership deserved another term. Many voters credited the 46-year old with bringing energy and accessibility to the state administration, turning the election into as much a referendum on his leadership as it was on BN itself. That “Onn factor” should not be underestimated. It helped BN retain its rural strongholds while making gains in urban constituencies around Johor Bahru where competition has traditionally been tougher. The coalition’s component parties, including MCA and MIC, also performed better than many had expected. Perhaps the biggest surprise was voter turnout. Conventional wisdom suggested that a higher turnout, driven by outstation Johoreans returning home to vote, would benefit the Opposition. Instead, despite heavy traffic and congested highways on polling day, the higher turnout translated into an even stronger mandate for BN. The message was clear – many voters returning home were not seeking change but endorsing continuity. Stability emerged as one of the

defining themes of the election. Some had questioned the need for an early dissolution of the state assembly but the result showed that BN had successfully convinced voters that continuity under Onn Hafiz offered certainty at a time of economic challenges. But electoral victories are easier won than sustained. The harder task begins now. A landslide victory brings political capital but it also raises expectations. Throughout the campaign period, Johoreans repeatedly highlighted bread-and-butter issues such as the rising cost of living, quality jobs, public transport, affordable housing and better public services. It was evident that while investment announcements remain important, voters ultimately want to see how they translate into tangible improvements in their daily lives. Onn Hafiz now has the political capital to pursue reforms more decisively. Whether he can convert that mandate into tangible results will define his second term. For Pakatan Harapan (PH), the defeat is likely to trigger a period of reflection. Johor has historically been BN’s strongest base but PH’s inability to defend several of its previous strongholds suggests that the

JOHOR BAHRU: Johor has spoken, and it has spoken emphatically. Barisan Nasional’s (BN) commanding victory in the state’s 16th election was hardly unexpected. What surprised many, however, was the scale of the mandate. Winning 48 out of the 56 state seats, BN did not merely retain power, it also expanded its dominance in what has long been regarded as its traditional fortress. For a coalition already governing the state, it was a rare feat – convincing voters to return it with an even stronger endorsement. After spending a week travelling across Johor reporting on campaign activities, from Muar and Tangkak in the north to the southern suburbs of Johor Bahru, one observation stood out consistently. People spoke positively about BN. More often than not, however, conversations quickly turned to one man – Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi. It was difficult to escape the campaign slogan, Onn Tak Onn ? which appeared on banners, across social media and at ceramah throughout the state. More than just a catchy tagline, it