13/06/2026

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US rises from oil embargo victim to top exporter

BOJ set to raise interest rates to 31-year high, soften stance TOKYO: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to raise interest rates to a 31-year high next week and signal its readiness to keep pushing up borrowing costs, undeterred by the absence of its governor as it focuses on countering inflation risks from the Middle East war. The decision would align the BOJ with other central banks shifting towards tighter policy including the European Central Bank, which delivered a much anticipated hike on Thursday. Governor Kazuo Ueda, now in hospital for a two-week treatment for an infected liver cyst, will miss the two-day meeting concluding on June 16. The remaining eight board members, many of whom have warned of mounting price pressures, are likely to raise the policy rate to 1% from 0.75% – taking it to levels unseen since 1995. “Ueda’s absence won’t affect the BOJ’s institutional decision to focus on mounting inflation risks rather than risks to growth from the Middle East conflict,“ said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute. The hike would be the first since December and mark a pivot away from the BOJ’s cautious approach dismantling the remnants of the radical stimulus of Ueda’s predecessor, towards a focus on the conventional central bank role of fighting inflation. With a hike next week near fully priced in, markets are shifting attention to the timing and pace of future increases. A Reuters poll showed economists projecting the BOJ to raise rates to 1.25% in the fourth quarter after a hike in June to 1%. One complication for investors will be comparing the language of Ueda’s past comments with that of Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, who holds next week’s post meeting briefing on the governor’s behalf. Investors will be looking for clues from Uchida on whether signs of broadening inflation could prod the BOJ to speed up rate hikes. The BOJ will likely stress its resolve to keep raising rates as the energy shock, rising import costs from a weak yen and a tight labour market fan inflation risks. But BOJ sees little need for faster or consecutive rate increases, at least for now, sources have told Reuters, citing un certainty over the economic fallout from the Iran war. “While Uchida is seen as among the more dovish members of the board, he’ll probably try to sound fairly hawkish to avoid triggering unwelcome yen falls,“ said Nobuyasu Atago, chief economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute. “It’s a dilemma. The BOJ won’t want to pre commit to any timing given so much uncertainty. But sounding too cautious about the next move could weaken the yen, push up prices and heighten the risk of being behind the curve.” A hike to 1% would bring the BOJ’s policy rate around the bottom of its estimated nominal 1.1-2.5% range seen as levels deemed neutral to the economy – reason to tread cautiously. But the slow pace of BOJ rate hikes has been blamed for weakening the yen, which is hovering around the 160-per-dollar line seen as heightening the chance of yen intervention. At next week’s meeting, the BOJ will also review its bond taper plan, running through March next year, and lay out a new plan for fiscal 2027 and beyond.

President Vladimir Putin, said this month. But long before the US-Iran war started, both Saudi Arabia and Russia were trailing far behind US companies on production growth. Crude and liquids output in the US has nearly tripled to about 22 million bpd since 2000. Saudi crude and liquids output has largely fluctuated between 10 million and 12 million bpd depending on Opec quotas between 2000 and 2026. Russian oil and liquids output soared to 10 million bpd from 6 million bpd between 2000 and 2010, grew by a further 2 million bpd during the 2010s, but has largely stagnated and declined to below 10 million bpd since 2020. Global oil demand grew to 104 million bpd last year from 87 million in 2010, meaning the lion’s share of the global growth of the past 15 years has been mostly met by the US oil boom. In 2015, the US repealed a 40-year export ban it had in place since the Arab oil embargo, opening the gates for its oil boom to the wider world. Fast forward 10 years, it has become the biggest oil exporter, proving skeptics wrong that the growth would be short-lived as fields deplete. Unlike in Saudi Arabia and Russia, where governments fully or partially set production and export targets, the US boom hinges on private companies’ decisions and is primarily driven by profits. When oil prices rise, US firms will respond by raising production, which will help bring prices down. When prices are weak, US firms will cut output, which will boost prices, said Kenneth Medlock III, a fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute for Public Policy. Asian countries, which used to buy the bulk of their crude from the Middle East, are also now increasingly relying on the US for supplies. Asia accounted for about 46% of US oil exports in May, compared with around 37% last year. – Reuters

Arabia exported about 8.1 million bpd in 2025, while the US shipped out 6.6 million bpd, and Russian exports stood at about 5.8 million bpd, according to Vortexa data. “Washington has a new tool they didn’t realize they had before the Iran war – energy exports,” said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy at ship tracking firm Kpler. The new US dominance could weaken the pricing power that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies have historically held over oil markets. US President Donald Trump has long criticized Opec for manipulating the markets. The group also suffered a blow in May when one of its biggest members, the United Arab Emirates, left the organisation after nearly 60 years. The biggest oil exporter spot will give Washington a powerful new lever in talks with allies and rivals in addition to its global military supremacy and its dominance of financial markets thanks to the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. “You can see now the leverage the US has over some of these countries because they are dependent on the US for their oil or gas,” Brouhard said, adding that the US was the largest provider of crude to Europe and the second-largest provider of distillates. EU officials, who initially welcomed the US oil and gas boom as an alternative to Russian and Middle Eastern supply, have grown more skeptical and warned of risks of becoming too dependent on American companies. The warning coincided with the EU clashing with the US administration over trade tariffs and green regulations. Moscow is also finding it hard to hide frustration. US energy companies were the main beneficiaries of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Igor Sechin, the boss of the Kremlin oil major Rosneft and one of the closest allies of

HOUSTON: The US has become the world’s largest oil exporter, upending a decades-old order long dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia, a shift that tightens American companies’ grip on energy markets as Washington’s war with Iran reshapes global energy trade. America’s ascendancy to the top spot marks a stunning reversal for a country that was dependent on Middle Eastern oil for decades and suffered from an oil embargo imposed by some Opec members in 1973 to retaliate against US support for Israel. US fortunes began to change after 2010, when oil and gas output from its shale formations soared, first making it the world’s top gas and then the world’s top oil producer. With the US-Iran war disrupting Saudi oil exports since February 2026 and Russian oil exports suffering from Ukrainian drone attacks and US sanctions on Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine, the US has become the world’s leading oil exporter. US exports of crude and fuel climbed to about 10.5 million barrels per day in May on the back of high output and the release of strategic reserves, data from ship tracking services Vortexa showed, making the US the top global exporter for the third month in a row. Russian exports stood at 7 million bpd in May, according to Reuters’ calculations, while Saudi Arabia’s exports stood at 5.9 million bpd, according to Vortexa. In comparison, Saudi o Conflict involving Iran, sanctions on Moscow and supply disruptions reshape market leadership

The US has overtaken heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, cementing its position as a key supplier to Europe and Asia. – PEXELS PIX

India willing to let fiscal deficit widen to 4.8% of GDP BENGALURU: India is preparing for a wider than-expected budget deficit this year, Bloomberg News reported yesterday, citing an official familiar with the matter, as the war in Iran raises fuel subsidy costs and pressures government finances. to 4.8% of GDP compared with the 4.3% target for this fiscal year that started on April 1, according to the report.

supplies. The government’s fertiliser subsidy is likely to jump 20% in the fiscal year, a government official had said earlier. Authorities are keeping their options open for now and plan to reassess the fiscal outlook later this year, when there is more clarity on non-tax revenues and subsidy needs, Bloomberg News reported. The government is also evaluating possible spending cuts across ministries to contain the deficit, the report said. – Reuters

Higher crude prices and supply disruptions after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have hit India, prompting state retailers to raise petrol and diesel prices by about 8%. The government has also cut subsidies on cooking gas cylinders for households. India ships in about 90% of its oil and is one of the countries most-exposed to prolonged Iran war-related disruptions to global energy

Reuters could not immediately verify the report and has sought comment from India’s finance ministry. The country, the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, is willing to let the budget gap widen by as much as 50 basis points