31/05/2026

theSunday Special V ON SUNDAY MAY 31, 2026

Climate change threatens global plant species as habitats shrink

S OME of the plants that make familiar landscapes recognisable may not survive by the end of the century as climate change becomes an increasingly important driver of species loss, reshaping and often shrinking suitable habitats that the plants need to survive, according to scientists. Researchers modelled future ranges for numerous species of vascular plants, a category that accounts for almost all the world’s plants – those with water and nutrient-carrying tissues. They looked at more than 67,000 species and found 7% to 16% could lose more than 90% of their range, placing them at high risk of extinction. The researchers came to their estimates after examining millions of records on plant locations as well as greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios for 2081-2100. A plant’s habitat is not just a place on a map, but the full array of conditions it needs – temperature, rainfall, soils, land use and landscape features such as shade. “One way to picture this is to imagine plants trying to follow a moving ‘climate envelope’. As temperatures warm, many species can shift northward or uphill to stay cool enough. But temperature is only part of the story,” said Junna Wang, a Yale University postdoctoral researcher and Xiaoli Dong, an environmental science and policy professor at the University of California, Davis, in joint comments to Reuters. Wang and Dong helped lead the study published in the journal Science . In many places, the study Forecasters are increasingly convinced this year will see a return of the weather phenomenon and it could be exceptionally strong. El Nino, which occurs about every two to seven years, shifts normal weather patterns on land, bringing drought to some places and heavy rains elsewhere. It is associated with warmer seawater and in some places, reduced cloud cover, both of which are bad news for global coral reefs. “Every global coral bleaching event has been during an El Nino year,” said Clint Oakley, a coral scientist at Victoria University of Wellington. He described feeling “dread, although not surprise” at the prospect of a strong El Nino, which could prove “serious and devastating for many reefs around the world”. Survival of coral depends on a special relationship with a kind of algae. The algae reside in the structure built by corals and in

important and innovative management strategies out there, but they’re all just buying time,” said Matthews. There are still uncertainties about El Nino’s arrival and impacts, and scientists caution forecasts should be interpreted with that in mind. “An El Nino is likely, but the strength and duration are still uncertain. “El Nino is one piece of the puzzle that affects the weather at a certain location, but there are other factors like local ocean temperatures and winds across the Indian Ocean,” said Kimberley Reid, a research fellow in atmospheric sciences at the University of Melbourne. Even without an El Nino, the long-term prospects look dire for coral. Up to 50% of the world’s coral has been lost in recent decades, diminishing ecosystems that provide nurseries for fish that feed the world and protect coastlines from storm surges. It is a sobering reality, said Matthews. “If we don’t get our act together on climate change, then all we’re doing is buying time until our reefs, as we know them, disappear.” – AFP “If climate change reduces vegetation cover, ecosystems may absorb less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which can further intensify warming. That creates a feedback loop in which climate change harms plants and reduced plant cover or productivity in turn worsens climate change. Ultimately, protecting plant diversity is not only about conserving nature for its own sake, it is also about maintaining the ecological systems that support human societies,” they said. They described this as a global reshuffling, with some species disappearing from parts of their historical range while others move into new areas, but said local gains do not mean plants are doing better overall. These shifts could also create “novel communities” – combinations of plants that have not historically lived together but would begin encountering one another for the first time. But it is not possible yet to know how these interactions would play out. Plants underpin most terrestrial ecosystems. They store carbon, stabilise soils, support wildlife and provide food, timber, medicines and other materials. Changes in plant diversity can have cascading effects on nature and people.

Climate change is threatening the existence of many plant species. – 123RFPIC

bleaching event was declared in 2024. In the Caribbean, some types of coral are now “functionally extinct”, while Australia’s Great Barrier Reef – the only living structure visible from space – lost between 15% and 40% of its coral cover at different locations between 2024 and 2025. A super El Nino would push sea temperatures up from a baseline that is already often too warm for corals. “The average sea temperature for the last few years is the same as what it was at the peak of the 1998 global bleaching event,” said Oakley. ‘Just buying time’ There are some corals globally that have proven resilient to warmer waters, but they cannot make up for the losses caused by rounds of bleaching. Scientists are also experimenting with techniques ranging from nutritional gel to feed corals to shading techniques and genetic engineering to protect reefs. “There’s a lot of really regions, including parts of the western US and Mediterranean climate regions, face risk from stronger drought, lower soil moisture and more frequent wildfires. In southern and eastern coastal Australia, coastlines may limit poleward shifts. At the same time, local plant diversity could rise across about 28% of Earth’s land surface as species move into newly suitable areas, including parts of the tropics and subtropics where increased rainfall – rather than temperature alone – could make conditions suitable for additional species, the researchers found.

indicated, climate change is shrinking these combinations, leaving fewer areas where all the conditions that a species needs still exist together. For plants, movement – or dispersal – usually happens across generations via seeds or spores carried by wind, water, animals or gravity. Yet, when the researchers compared realistic movement with a scenario in which plants could reach any newly suitable habitat, extinction rates were very similar. “If slow movement were the main problem, then allowing unlimited dispersal should

dramatically reduce extinction risk. But that is not what we found,” said Wang and Dong. That matters for conservation. “If dispersal limitation were the main driver, then strategies such as assisted migration – physically helping species move to new areas – could solve much of the problem. But if climate change is reducing the amount of suitable habitat overall, then simply helping species move may not be enough,” they added. The projected impacts vary by region. Cold-adapted plants in the Arctic may lose habitats as extreme cold climates shrink. Dry

Marine scientists fear ‘super El Nino’ impact on coral reefs globally THE arrival of a potentially powerful El Nino weather system this year could devastate coral reefs around the world already weakened by back-to-back rounds of bleaching, scientists said. again, then that’s only a downwards trajectory from there,” said Oakley. The last global mass

Up to 50% of the world’s coral has been lost in recent decades, much to the dismay of scientists. – 123RFPIC return, produce nutrients for their host via photosynthesis. to infection and less able to devote the energy needed for reproduction.

But for reasons that still elude scientists, this arrangement falls apart when seawater warms too much and the algae leave or are expelled. The algae provide coral with its characteristic colours and their departure leaves a ghostly white structure that gradually starves. ‘Functionally extinct’ If the waters cool quickly enough, the coral can survive on food stores until algae resume residence. But even if that happens, it will be malnourished, vulnerable

“And if it takes too long for the waters to cool down or if the heat is too extreme, then they will essentially starve and they’ll die,” explained Jen Matthews, a University of Technology Sydney coral scientist. Periodic, localised bleaching is a natural and even healthy process for reefs. The problem is repeated mass bleaching, which has become the norm with rising sea temperatures caused by climate change. “If (they are) being bleached before (they have) even recovered and able to reproduce