20/03/2026

BIZ & FINANCE FRIDAY | MAR 20, 2026

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M’sian palm oil exports remain robust

palm oil in March, India is expected to continue favouring palm oil imports in March and April due to steep increases in freight costs. Voyages from South America to India typically take 6-7 weeks, compared with only 7-10 days from Malaysia. High vegetable oil prices, coupled with an oversupply of oil meals and feed grains, have encouraged farmers to prioritise planting of sunflower seed and rapeseed, which have an oil content of around 41-43%. As a result, global sunflower seed and rapeseed production is projected to increase sharply, with combined output expected to rise by 6.8 million tonnes to 149 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year. In view of this, sunflower oil prices may face downward pressure in the coming months, and the current premium may not be sustainable if the projected production materialises. Looking ahead, MPOC said palm oil prices are expected to remain above RM4,450 in the near term, supported by elevated energy prices and a favourable palm oil-gasoil spread. “However, weaker economic growth and heightened price volatility arising from uncertainties in the Middle East may temporarily delay imports from major markets, potentially capping the price rally,” it said. meaningful production uplift. In response, PublicInvest pointed out that MSC has taken a more proactive approach to managing these constraints. “Beyond relying on its own mining operations, the group has broadened its sourcing footprint across multiple regions, while intensifying efforts to extract additional value from tailings and intermediate waste. “This strategy, in our view, should help MSC better navigate supply tightness while sustaining output growth in a constrained environment,“ it said. PublicInvest is maintaining its Outperform call on MSC, and has raised its target price to RM2.60.

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s palm oil production declined seasonally to 1.28 million tonnes in February, down 18.5% (-293,000 tonnes) from January. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC), the decline was mainly attributed to fewer harvesting days due to the shorter month and the Lunar New Year public holiday. Exports remained robust in February, accounting for 88% of Malaysia’s production and contributing to a lower stock level, the agency noted. This was despite a 22.5% month-on month decline (-327,000 tonnes) to 1.12 million tonnes. Cumulative exports from January to February increased by 18.7% (+406,000 tonnes) to 2.58 million tonnes, with India contributing the largest share of the increase. MPOC also noted that vegetable oil prices moved into an uptrend in o India emerged as the main driver of early-year shipments, supported by favourable pricing and logistics

Global supply tightens as refinery disruptions and shipping constraints affect availability. – BERNAMAPIX

Indonesia is accelerating road tests for B50 blending to reduce reliance on imports, though the implementation timeline remains unclear. India’s palm oil imports recovered strongly in the first two months of 2026, rising by 965,000 tonnes or 149% to 1.6 million tonnes compared with the same period last year. Although soybean oil from South America was trading at parity with

rapeseed oil rose 4%, sunflower oil increased 3%, while soybean oil gained only 1% in the global market. The sharp rise in gasoil prices in the global market has improved the competitiveness of biodiesel usage and blending. MPOC also highlighted that Brazil’s biodiesel industry has called for an increase in the blending mandate from B15 to B16, while

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consolidation mid-2025, supported by rising crude oil prices amid logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and force majeure declarations by several major oil refineries in the Middle East. Among the major vegetable oils, palm oil has been the price leader, rising 10% since the outbreak of the conflict on Feb 27. In comparison, since

PublicInvest turns positive on MSC, sees stronger growth ahead KUALA LUMPUR: Public Investment Bank Bhd (PublicInvest) has a more constructive view on Malaysia Smelting Corporation Bhd’s (MSC) prospects following a recent briefing, pointing to a clearer and more resilient medium-term growth trajectory. “This is set to be further reinforced by the completion of a new tailing pond, a development that is expected to lift daily tin concentrate production to 14 tonnes from April 2026, up from the current 11 tonnes. since moderated to around the US$46,000 level, but this is still well above the US$30,000–40,000 range that largely defined trading conditions through 2025, suggesting that the market is operating on a structurally higher base. “Refined tin output is expected to grow modestly by 3% in 2026, after a 2% increase in 2025, reflecting lingering regulatory constraints in Indonesia as well as ongoing disruptions in key producing regions such as Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo,“ it said.

“Taken together, these factors position MSC to better capture upside from favourable market conditions while gradually enhancing its underlying earnings profile,“ PublicInvest said in a report. PublicInvest also highlighted that while tin prices have eased from their recent peak of about US$57,730 per tonne earlier this year, the broader price environment remains firmly supportive. The research firm said prices have

PublicInvest noted that the earlier rally was driven not just by underlying demand tied to energy transition and digitalisation trends, but also by tighter inventories across major exchanges, which drew in some speculative positioning. More importantly, PublicInvest noted that the fundamental imbalance remains intact, with demand continuing to outpace supply.

The research house’s improved stance is anchored on expectations that tin prices will remain supported by a persistent structural supply deficit, even as MSC continues to strengthen its operational footing. “Notably, progress within the group’s mining division has been encouraging, with ongoing gains in efficiency and recovery rates beginning to translate into more consistent output.

Against this backdrop, PublicInvest noted that the demand is projected to expand at a slightly faster pace of 3.5%, effectively pushing the market into deficit — a condition that could persist over the medium term. Structural challenges on the supply side, particularly the limited pipeline of new mining capacity and the gradual depletion of existing deposits, continue to cap any

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