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Kinabatangan, Lamag polls set to be close fight

Entrenched networks give BN structural advantage while Warisan draws local support from younger, urban voters: Political analyst Ű BY QIRANA NABILLA MOHD RASHIDI newsdesk@thesundaily.com

Harapan back its candidates. “However, Warisan also has an advantage due to its strong performance in the previous state election and its position as a local party, compared with BN, which is often perceived in Sabah as a ‘Malaya-based’ party”, he added. The upcoming Kinabatangan parliamentary by-election will feature a three-way contest between BN, Parti Warisan and an independent candidate. BN’s Mohd Naim will take on Warisan’s Datuk Saddi Abdul Rahman, a former Sukau assemblyman, and independent Goldam Hamid. Meanwhile, the Lamag state seat by-election will be a straight contest between BN’s Mohd Ismail Ayob and Warisan’s Mazliwati Abdul Malek. The Kinabatangan parliamentary seat and Lamag state seat became vacant following Bung Moktar’s passing on Dec 5. Bung Moktar had held Kinabatangan for six terms since 1999 and narrowly retained Lamag in the 17th Sabah State Election with a majority of 153. The Election Commission has scheduled polling for both seats on Jan 24, with early voting set for Jan 20.

this dynamic can strengthen cohesion but also create polarisation over party alignment or succession.” Lyndon also said the independent candidate in Kinabatangan could influence the race by drawing votes away from one of the main parties, highlighting local grievances or forcing major candidates to adjust their strategies. “If the independent has strong community legitimacy or family ties, the effect could be crucial in a close contest. “While the main contest is between BN and Warisan, independent candidates in Sabah could still influence outcomes in unpredictable ways,” he said. Echoing a similar view, Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said the Kinabatangan and Lamag by-elections are expected to be closely contested, primarily between BN and Warisan. He said neither Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) nor Pakatan Harapan fielded candidates, which reflects a functional working relationship among the parties. “BN may hold an edge if supporters of GRS and Pakatan

successfully mobilises swing voters and engages youth constituencies.” Lyndon emphasised that Lamag, by contrast, is a straight two-candidate race with little room for vote-splitting. Here, success would depend on the cross-community appeal of candidates and alignment with local issues. “Warisan could challenge BN if the latter’s support is concentrated but not broad, as swing voters could be decisive.” He also said family-based political succession carries significant symbolic and relational capital, with Mohd Naim Kurniawan’s (son of the late Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin) candidacy reinforcing voter loyalty among constituents tied to his late father’s legacy. “The passing of a long-serving representative often triggers emotional and social recalibration within the community. “Voters may feel nostalgia or loyalty, increasing support for a successor perceived to continue the legacy, while social networks previously maintained by the deceased could temporarily destabilise, creating openings for rivals. “In close-knit communities,

parliamentary seat will feature a three-cornered contest between Barisan Nasional (BN), Warisan and an independent candidate, while it will be a one-on-one fight between BN and Warisan in the Lamag state seat. This was announced by returning officer Eddy Syaizul Rizam Abdullah at Sri Lamag Hall yesterday. “The Election Commission (EC) has received nomination papers from three candidates for the parliamentary seat election of P187 Kinabatangan constituency and two candidates for the state seat election of N58 Lamag constituency.” The Kinabatangan parliamentary by-election will see a contest between Mohd Naim Kurniawan Moktar representing BN, Warisan’s Datuk Saddi Abdul Rahman and independant Goldam Hamid, while in the Lamag state seat, it will be a clash between Mohd Ismail Ayob from BN and Mazliwati Abdul Malek from Warisan. The nomination centre opened at 9am yesterday and the process of submitting nomination forms took an hour. For the Kinabatangan seat, Mohd Naim, 32, was the first PETALING JAYA: The upcoming by-elections in Kinabatangan and Lamag are shaping up to be closely fought contests, with political analysts highlighting both the advantages of Barisan Nasional’s (BN) entrenched networks and Warisan’s strong local appeal. According to Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political analyst Prof Dr Novel Lyndon, BN’s strength in constituencies stems from its role in the federal and state governments, providing visibility, access to resources and institutional legitimacy. “These factors reinforce local networks and voter perceptions of effectiveness, giving BN a structural advantage, particularly in rural and socially cohesive areas. “Warisan draws support from younger and urban voters, using

his nomination form at 9.06am, followed by Saddi, 67, at 9.18am and Goldam, 40, at 9.31am. Mohd Ismail, 44, was the first candidate to submit his nomination form for the Lamag seat at 9.04am, followed by Mazliwati, 53, at 9.07am. The by-election was called following the death of incumbent Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, 66, on Dec 5. The EC has set a 14-day campaign period from the declaration of candidates until 11.59pm on Jan 23. The electoral roll for the Kinabatangan parliamentary and Lamag state by-elections contains 48,722 individuals, comprising 48,526 ordinary voters and 196 police personnel as well as their spouses as early voters. The official vote tallying centre for the Kinabatangan parliamentary and Lamag state by-elections will be at Dewan Sri Lamag. A total of 36 ordinary polling centres comprising 117 polling stations or channels and one early polling centre at the Kinabatangan district police headquarters, with one channel, will be opened. According to the EC, all polling centres will be open from 8am to 5pm, except for 20 polling centres local issues and fresh narratives to mobilise swing voters, making it competitive despite BN’s advantages.” Lyndon said both the Kinabatangan parliamentary seat and Lamag state seat have traditionally been held by Umno, placing the onus on the party to retain them. He said Kinabatangan’s three cornered contest creates a fragmented electoral landscape, with BN holding a historical advantage through strong grassroots networks, while Warisan works to consolidate support across a mixed ethnic and rural electorate. “The presence of multiple candidates increases the risk of vote-splitting, potentially favouring the candidate with the strongest local ties. “Nevertheless, Warisan could remain competitive if it

By-election for parliamentary seat sees three-cornered contest KINABATANGAN: The by-election for the Kinabatangan candidate to submit

From left: Mohd Naim, Goldam and Saddi. – BERNAMAPIC

party logo/symbol and a photo of its represented leader. “Permissible materials such as advertisements, leaflets, stickers and posters must contain the printer’s and publisher’s name and address, except for flags, party symbol posters and images of the party leader or candidate. “Materials containing words that could incite ill-will, racial sentiment, religious sensitivities or sedition are strictly prohibited.”

monitor the campaigning activities of the candidates. Ramlan added that 39 observers from nine organisations will be participating in both the by-elections to ensure electoral transparency. He said candidates who have paid their deposits are subject to local authority bylaws regarding the display and distribution of campaign materials, which must feature the candidate’s photo,

in three state constituencies – Lamag, Kuamut and Sukau – which will close early at between 12pm and 4pm. Meanwhile, EC chairman Datuk Seri Ramlan Harun said a 65% voter turnout is expected for the Kinabatangan parliamentary and Lamag state by-elections on Jan 24, Bernama reported. He also said the EC had established four election campaign enforcement teams to